When the last bear turns bullish is it time to get out – MoneyWeek – 足球彩票bet正确网址_365bet足球即时比分_365bet中国客服电话_足球彩票bet正确网址_365bet足球即时比分_365bet中国客服电话

“Iamnowfeelingbetterabouttheprognosisfortheworldeconomyforthefirsttimeinages,”saysRoachinhislatestresearchnote。

AfterseveralyearsofdirewarningsaboutglobaltradeimbalancesandtheUScurrent-accountdeficit,signsthatcentralbanksareadjustingliquidityandtheIMFandG7areseriousabouttacklingimbalanceshavewonhimroundtoasemi-bullishposition。

Butnoteveryoneisencouragedbythissuddenconversion。

“Youhavetoadmirethebraveryofthecall,giventhatRoachadmitsthelasttimehewassooptimisticwas1999,”saysPratley。

ButwhileRoachmayhavebeenthebiggestbearinthewoods,therearestillplentyofothersaround。

AnthonyBoltonofFidelity’sSpecialSituationsfundemergedasonelastweek,revealingthathehasboughtathree-monthputoptionallowinghimtosellalargeproportionofhisholdingsatapre-arrangedprice,andhasalsocutborrowingsfromtheusual15-20%ofshareholdersfundsto11。

5%。

“ThebullmarketintheUKhasnowentereditsfinalstage,”hesays,withfewercompaniesmeetingthecriteriaforinclusioninhisfund。

It’scertainlyhardtofindvalueinUKshares,saysPatrickHoskinginTheTimes。

Whileaveragep/eratiosintheFTSE100areattheirlowestfortenyears,they“arelowforgoodreasonsatthisstageoftheeconomiccycle,withinterestratesrisingandgrowthslowing”。

Andtheindexhasahigher-than-usualweightingtowardshistoricallylowlyratedsectorssuchasbanksandminers。

Despitethis,HoskingthinksthatdecentyieldsmeantheoverallUKmarketdoesnotlookovervalued,althoughfurtherprogresswillbehardertocomeby。

TheUSisadifferentmatter,saysJohnMaudlinonFrontlinethoughts。

com。

Hearguesthatthereisa13-yearcycleinvaluations,takingthemarketfromundervaluedtoovervaluedandbackagain。

Byhistoricalstandards,valuationsarestillsohighthattheexpectedreturnovertenyearsiszero。